According to 2009 research reported in Social Science Quarterly, "people with unpopular names have a higher risk of criminality than people with popular ones."
Once again, we have people forgetting that "correlation does not imply causation." You can't determine you child's criminal record by choosing their name at birth. Nevertheless, here is what the researchers did, and the conclusions some people are making, based on it.
Step one: find 15,012 boys born between 1987 and 1991. Step two: sort them by first name. Step three: analyze the crimes they committed in adolescence. Step four: count the number of crimes for each name.
Analysis: "Boys with popular names committed the fewest. Boys with unpopular committed the most."
You can see the problems, can't you? The researchers themselves acknowledged them, but reporters who have written about it seem to ignore the weaknesses of the study. They don't understand that "correlation does not imply causation."
Nothing was controlled in this study.
How many of the parents of these boys were criminals? Could it be that criminals give their kids unusual names more than law-abiders? Having criminal parents might make a difference.
What was the socioeconomic status of the families? There is more crime in low-income families, and there are differences in name preferences found in different socioeconomic levels. Being born into poverty might make a difference.
Where are the girls in this study? Would the same correlation be seen among girls? (If you are looking for an idea for some research, there's an idea.)
What about popular names outside of that five-year period?
BTW: The most popular name: Michael. The least popular: Preston and Alex.
You are wondering about my grandson? A few days ago he used one of the Facebook apps to find out how many people in the world have his first and middle names. According to it, he is the only "Dalton Grady" in the world. Being the only one with that name seems to me to be the very defintion of an "unpopular" name. I guess I better call his mother and tell her that he is destined to become a criminal.
I hate to think about the future of my other grandson, Slade Levi. How many of those can there be in the world?
December 5, 2009
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2 comments:
I have a very uncommon name myself and I'm a female. I have a pretty big criminal record myself. But the research isn't good enough if you don't check into all the socioeconomic status.
i dont think your grandsons will be criminals.. i think its how they are raised is how they turn out.. i like those names.
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